More garbage from the Climate Sceptics Party

“Renowned engineer and aviation/space pioneer Burt Rutan, was named “100 most influential people in the world, 2004″ by Time Magazine and Newsweek called him “the man responsible for more innovations in modern aviation than any living engineer.” Rutan has received “hundreds of awards including: Presidential Citizen’s Medal, Two Collier Trophies, Academy of Achievement Golden Plate and the Charles Lindbergh Award. He has developed 44 new aircraft types since 1972 including; Voyager, SpaceShipOne, and the first commercial spaceship – SpaceShipTwo. Rutan, declared himself skeptical of man-made global warming.”

Burt Rutan has a very impressive CV. He clearly knows a lot about aviation engineering. His expertise in that area is almost unrivaled. He is the real deal…. but his OPINION on man-made global warming is worthless on a professional basis.

This paragraph comes from a “report” put out by Climatedepot.org titled, “More Than 1000 International Scientists Dissent Over Man-Made Global Warming Claims. Scientists Continue to Debunk Fading “Consensus” in 2008 & 2009 & 2010″ and is linked on the Climate Sceptics Party (CSP) website. Now, I’ve covered the issue of long lists in a previous entry called “Does size matter?” so I won’t get too much into that again other than to say that when it comes to science, quality is more important than quantity. The climate sceptics also link to two other lists. One is the seriously debunked and much ridiculed Oregon petition with its more than 30000 “scientists” who disagree with AGW. In case you are unfamiliar, less than 0.1% of the signatories on the petition actually identify themselves as climatologists and the vast majority identify as having a Bachelor degree “or equivalent”. The rest are medical doctors, dentists, vets, lawyers, economists, chemists………… you get the picture. The other is a link to a Wikipedia entry with a list of the usual suspects from the climate denial industry, most of whom are associated with the oil-funded thinktanks in the US like Heartland, Georce C Marshall and the like. I especially like the inclusion of Fred Singer on that list, the same Fred Singer who took money from tobacco lobbyists and spouted the health benefits of smoking.

Anyway, back to the list of 1000. I’ll admit I hadn’t actually heard of this list until I found it on the CSP website so I thought I’d take a good look at it. Now, first things first. 1000 scientists sounds like a very impressive number of scientists…but is it really? According to AAAS, in 2006 there were approximately 5.8 million scientists in the world in all OECD countries plus Argentina, China, Romania, Russia, Singapore, Slovenia, South Africa and Taiwan. This number does not include scientists in India. That means Climatedepot managed to rustle up 0.00017% of all the scientists in the world to put forward their dissenting position. The next thing to do is to look at the disciplines of science these scientists specialise in. Rather than going through the full list, I will assume that the scientists they have gone to the trouble of highlighting are the cream of their crop. Here are their listed professions… Director of Technical Services & Development for U.S. Magnesium, Senior Research Fellow at the National Institute of Aerospace, Physicist, Associate Professor of Mechanical Engineering, Head of geomagnetic variations laboratory at the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radiowave Propagation of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Geologist, Chemistry Professor, Research ChemistClimatologistEngineer and aviation/space pioneer, Atmospheric Physicist, Earth scientists, Biologist, Hebrew University Professor, Astrophysicist. Look everyone, a real climatologist…..or is he? His name is Dr Hans Jelbring and he works at the Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics Unit at Stockholm University. As far as I can tell, this Swedish climatologist has never published a single paper in the field of climatology. Oh well, that’s a shame.

Anyway, my point is this, scientifically illiterate people like those within the Climate Sceptics Party don’t seem to understand that just as oils ain’t oils, scientists ain’t scientists and that there many different disciplines within “science”. Not only that, but there are disciplines within disciplines. I recall in my first year of university writing a research assignment about a particular animal. I was extremely interested in how this animal concentrated urine to extremely toxic levels whilst it was in stasis. I went to a leading ecologist at the university who had written several papers about this particular animal and asked him about the mechanisms  it used to concentrate urine. He replied, “How would I know? That’s physiology.” This was a real eye opener for me into how specialised scientists are. The way I like to try and explain this to laypeople is to suggest that when their house needs rewiring, they will call a tradesman, but not just any tradesman. They will call an electrician because plumbers don’t rewire houses. It is the same with scientists. If you want information about climate science, you go to a climatologist, not a geologist or a chemistry professor or a space pioneer.

So what the CSP are doing is relying on non-specialists, more often than not with vested interests, to give them information. I can only wonder, if they will apply the same logic if their house needs rewiring or if they need to know how to treat brain cancer? Rather then take the advice of specialist oncologists will they instead seek advice from the retired veterinarian up the road? After all, he’s a doctor too.

So why do they do it? I think deep down, the CSP know they can’t possibly cater to mainstream voters so they deliberately target and play to the fringe elements, the far rightwing, gun obsessed, loony Christian ultraconservatives who for whatever reason failed science in school. Maybe that’s their tactic or maybe they are just anti-establishment for the sake of being anti-establishment with very little understanding of anything they are talking about. Whatever it is, they are a neverending source of giggles for me.

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8-fold underestimate in flowering time predictions

Climate scientists have estimated that since 1900, our global average temperature has increased by 0.8 degrees C with most of the warming occurring since 1979 with a 0.2 degrees C/decade increase since 1979. A recent paper published online at Nature by Wolkevitch et al  draws on evidence from plant life cycle studies and experiments performed on 1634 species from four continents. It found that some experiments had underestimated the speed of flowering by 8.5 times and growing leaves by 4 times.

“Across all species, the experiments under-predicted the magnitude of the advance – for both leafing and flowering – that results from temperature increases,” the study said, ”Predicting species’ response to climate change is a major challenge in ecology.”

What this study demonstrates is, that because of other factors not considered or under-considered in warming experiments, they fail to accommodate things like a drier soil or other multidimensional drivers. In a nutshell, its worse than we’ve been told.

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Heartland Institute Poster Fail

Reblogged from Climate Denial Crock of the Week:

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What the hell. It’s Friday. I’ll play.

Heartland Institute, the purveyors of climate disinformation and fine tobacco promotions, has begun a billboard campaign using the images of mass murderers and psychopaths to represent science literate citizens who understand climate change.

Lovely, right?

I couldn’t help but create my own. Rather like shooting fish in a barrel.

Kind of like eating peanuts.

Read more… 11 more words

This comes from Peter Sinclair's climatecrocks. He has inspired me to have a go at this myself. Here's looking at you Clive.

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Climate Sceptics Party – oh dear!

In a democracy it is important that all parts of society feel they are represented by their elected officials and it seems there is a new political party on the scene. Well, they aren’t really new as they have been around for a few years now, but the demographic they wish to represent is quite obvious when you take a look at what they stand for. For a start, it is imperative that for this party to represent you, you must be stupid. I was going to come up with a long list of human character flaws that would appear to be a requirement but just leaving it at stupid will do.

My normal position would normally be to not pay too much attention to idiots like this for fear of inadvertently promoting them but I don’t think they have much of a chance at securing the 14% they need to get someone into a senate spot. They certainly have no chance of ever securing a lower house seat in any electorate…ever.  The reason, is that they are pretty much clueless about everything they stand for. So let’s take a look at what they are about.

Oh, I should probably mention who they are. They call themselves the Climate Sceptics Party. When you go to their website, the idiocy starts almost immediately with a blurb from their party president,  Bill Koutalianos. He begins

“Dear Fellow Australians,

I welcome you to the Climate Sceptics Party site. We began our party in 2008 when a number of climate sceptic bloggers and thinkers realized, there were no political parties that were standing on the principle of truth in climate science. The apparent politicization of science lead us to form a hard nosed common sense party, in order to drag Australian politics back to practical basics.”

Now, I don’t know about you but a political party formed from climate denier bloggers and “thinkers” is hardly a strong basis for a political party. Climate denial bloggers continually demonstrate a severe lack of intellect and understanding of very basic science. Most of them don’t have an individual thought of their own, merely cutting and pasting garbage from intellectual lightweights like Andrew Bolt, “Lord” Monckton and Anthony Watts. What I really appreciate though is the distinction between “sceptic bloggers” and “thinkers”. I would agree that the two are mutually exclusive. What I find amazing, is the complaint that science has been politicised when they themselves are a political party which is patently based on an anti-science platform. Hypocrisy?

 “We are not merely a one issue party. Our policies are based on true science as opposed to politicized science, we are pro small business, we are for minimal government, and we are against the extreme green religion (a belief that clouds the thinking of the two major parties and many policy areas) .”

Not merely a one issue party? Then why call yourselves the Climate Sceptics Party? This mob are so “one issue” they sit comfortably alongside the former Nuclear Disarmament Party, The Fishing Party, The Sex Party, The Marijuana Party and numerous other fringe elements in terms of their tunnel vision. Their idea of “true science” is scary because according to these clowns, anyone cutting and pasting misrepresented scientific papers can qualify as a true scientist, but more on that later.

“In short, we know there is no scientist in the world that has evidence CO2 will overheat the planet. Six scientific peer reviewed papers show that CO2 cannot cause dangerous global warming. We are not just against the carbon tax or emissions trading scheme but against the need to reduce CO2 emissions in any way that damages our economy. CO2 is plant food and the more there is in the air, the more food we can grow.”

This is my favourite paragraph because it gets to the heart of how scientifically illiterate this lot are. I’ll deal with the last sentence first. The denial meme “CO2 is plant food” is so simplistic it beggars belief. Deniers will quote this or that glasshouse study as evidence for their meme, failing to understand the fundamental rule that you cannot extrapolate a glasshouse experiment to real world situations. In the real world, increased CO2 comes with increased temperature, altered rainfall, changes in nitrification, increased pest and disease susceptibility not to mention changes in the latitudes or elevation at which plants can grow. No, it is much more convenient for these idiots to wilfully ignore these things and just spout the meme knowing that some equally illiterate members of the public will agree. But let’s get back to the “six scientific peer reviewed papers” link. Clicking this link takes you to a Senate Submission where the Climate Sceptics Party repeat a number of denialist memes. I won’t bother listing them here but here is their list of references for their assertions.

 1http://www.ocean-sci-discuss.net/6/31/2009/osd-6-31-2009.pdf

2http://sciences.blogs.liberation.fr/home/files/Cazenave_et_al_GPC_2008.pdf

3http://www.pas.rochester.edu/~douglass/papers/KD_InPress_final.pdf

4http://www.jcronline.org/doi/abs/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-10-00141.1

5http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/jcoastres-d-10-00157-1.pdf

6http://landshape.org/enm/files/2009/07/EE-20-4_7-Stockwell.pdf

7http://www.fel.duke.edu/~scafetta/pdf/opinion0308.pdf

8http://arxiv.org/pdf/1005.4639v1

9http://www.space.dtu.dk/upload/institutter/space/forskning/06_projekter/isac/wp_501a.pdf

10http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/StottEtAl.pdf

11http://www.space.dtu.dk/upload/institutter/space/forskning/05_afdelinger/sun-climate/full_text_publications/svensmark_2007cosmoclimatology.pdf

12http://www.sciencebits.com/files/articles/CalorimeterFinal.pdf

13http://vixra.org/pdf/1108.0004v1.pdf

14http://www.masterresource.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Lindzen_Choi_APJAS_final.pdf

15http://www.legnostorto.com/allegati/Lindzen_Choi_ERBE_JGR_v4.pdf

16http://www.drroyspencer.com/Spencer_07GRL.pdf

17http://www.drroyspencer.com/Spencer-and-Braswell-08.pdf

18http://noconsensus.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/spencer-braswell-jgr-20101.pdf

19http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/3/8/1603/pdf

20http://www.met.hu/doc/idojaras/vol111001_01.pdf

21http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/E&E_21_4_2010_08-miskolczi.pdf

22http://www.met.hu/idojaras/IDOJARAS_vol108_No4_01.pdf

23http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1034/j.1600-0870.2002.01382.x/abstract

24http://arxiv.org/pdf/1104.4002v1

25http://rossmckitrick.weebly.com/uploads/4/8/0/8/4808045/mmh_asl2010.pdf

26http://www.scribd.com/doc/904914/A-comparison-of-tropical-temperature-trends-with-model-predictions?page=6

27http://itia.ntua.gr/getfile/850/3/documents/2008EGU_ClimatePredictionPrSm_.pdf

28http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2011/07/08/new-paper-illustrates-another-failure-of-the-ipcc-mullti-decadal-global-model-predictions-on-the-warming-in-the-tropical-upper-troposphere-models-versus-observations-by-fu-et-al-2011/

29http://pdfserve.informaworld.com/798817__928051726.pdf

30http://benthamscience.com/open/toascj/articles/V005/74TOASCJ.pdf

31http://landshape.org/enm/files/2010/10/Critique-of-DECR-EE.pdf

32http://www.aibs.org/bioscience-press-releases/resources/03-07.pdf

33http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/ets-to-shrink-regional-growth/story-e6frg6nf-1225691476399

34http://www.tia.asn.au/news/media-activity/clean-energy-finance-corp-to-be-set-up

35http://bravenewclimate.com/2010/08/12/zca2020-critique/

36http://www.worldcoal.org/coal-the-environment/coal-use-the-environment/improving-efficiencies/

37http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com/2011/07/selling-carbon-tax-in-never-land.html

38http://landshape.org/enm/renewables-wake-up-and-smell-the-rossi/

39http://hro001.wordpress.com/2010/04/14/uns-climate-bible-gets-21-fs-on-report-card/

40http://reviewipcc.interacademycouncil.net/report/Climate%20Change%20Assessments,%20Review%20of%20the%20Processes%20&%20Procedures%20of%20the%20IPCC.pdf

41http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/audit/anao-request-audit-bom.pdf

42 http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/latest/8916664/carbon-tax-billions-to-help-poor-nations/

43 http://www.tia.asn.au/news/media-activity/clean-energy-finance-corp-to-be-set-up

44 http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/113676.html

This could potentially be the most impressive list of garbage I’ve ever seen. Blogs, newspaper clippings, opinion pieces, industry websites etc. The only lists of garbage that outstrip this one for garbageness are Popular Technology’s list of 900 and the Oregon petition. If, on the off chance that there are six peer reviewed papers, I will be 100% certain they are being misunderstood or misrepresented in some way as is the usual thing when deniers meet science.

“We reject the Murray Darling Basin Plan because it is based on flawed climate assumptions. Instead, we support bringing a percentage of the freshwater that flows into the sea from Northern Australia, into our Murray Darling basin.”

That’s right, this mob seriously wants to take water out of northern flowing rivers and divert the water into the Murray Darling catchment. I can only wonder if they have considered what the effect of reduced environmental flows would have on those rivers, not to mention any important wetlands downstream? Do they even know what an environmental flow is? Would they have cease to take levels and where would they place them and on what basis would they decide on those levels? Would it be an ecological one or economical one? I think I know, but let’s pretend they got their way, how the hell would they pay for it? There’s no mention of cost or feasibility.

This is only the start of the craziness. I could go on, but I think I might make these guys a pet project and focus on one or two things at a time so consider this a teaser. I will endeavour to engage them and see if they have any actual policies they plan to implement or if their policies are just simple one paragraph statements filled with non-descript rhetoric based on false premises, as it appears on their policy webpage. Watch this space.

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More Range Shifts – European Alps

More and more, research is being published that leaves very little doubt at all that anthropogenic global warming and more generally, climate change is affecting the range distributions of many species of plants, animals and fungi. This in turn alters ecosystems in terms of species composition and diversity. In many instances, effects within species can include declines in genetic diversity which has a potentially devastating effect on species fitness.

Studies into the effects of global warming on range distributions have been undertaken in all sorts of habitats from every continent, looking at species from every Kingdom in the phylogenetic tree.  As could be expected, a large number of these studies are undertaken in areas where global warming is known to be most observable. This is in mountainous habitats where species, should they need to move, can only move vertically to remain within their evolved thermal tolerances. A very recent pan-European study published in Science, reports on the observed effect of global warming on species richness and diversity across 66 mountain summits from northern, central and southern Europe.

The researchers from the Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments programme (GLORIA) headed by Harald Pauli report that increasing species numbers were only found on summits of northern and central Europe. In the Mediterranean alpine region, species numbers were stagnating or declining at nearly all sites. Pauli stated, “Our results showing a decline at the Mediterranean sites is worrying because these are the mountains with a very unique flora and a large proportion of their species occur only there and nowhere else on Earth.”

As mentioned, on the summits further north in Europe, more plant species are prospering.  While ignorant deniers will no doubt jump on this sort of thing as evidence to support their stance, as it could be taken to indicate that alpine flowers are performing well there, this would be far too simplistic. Michael Gottfried also from GLORIA’s coordination team said, “I’m afraid that this is not necessarily the case because the newly appearing plants are predominantly more widespread species from lower elevations and will pose increasing competition pressure on the rarer cold-loving alpine flowers.” In other words, more is not necessarily better.

The different results from one end of the study to the other can be attributed to a combination of altered rainfall patterns and topography with some alpine areas essentially series of snowy islands amongst a sea of warmer valleys where altered rainfall patterns are causing added stress. Pauli sums it up thus, “The observed species losses were most pronounced on the lower summits, where plants are expected to suffer earlier from water deficiency than on the snowier high peaks. Climate warming and decreasing precipitation in the Mediterranean during the past decades fit well to the pattern of shrinking species occurrences. Additionally, much of the Mediterranean region is projected to become even drier during the upcoming decades.”

No doubt, future studies will reveal the extent to which this ongoing process becomes catastrophic for many of those species under threat.

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CO2 – not as weak as the deniers suggest

We are all familiar with this scene from the ridiculously loony “Great Global Warming Swindle” movie so favoured by wilfully ignorant and scientifically illiterate denialists. The suggestion is, and it is one their favourite catchcries, that “CO2 lags temperature!” To put it perhaps a little more scientifically, they are suggesting that because the Vostok ice core data from the last deglaciation shows a lag between temperature rise and CO2 concentration increase, this is evidence that CO2 does not drive climate. This is of course wrong because it is built on a false premise. The simplest explanation given by climate scientists is that Milankovitch cycles initiated the warming, and as things warmed up, CO2 previously locked away in permafrost and from vegetation being inundated by rising sea levels slowly increased to a level where it took over.

The problem as I see it is that the story has never been complete. Using a single data point such as the Vostok ice core is really only good for telling the story of what happened in that particular area. A new study published in Nature today goes along way to filling in the gaps. Here is its abstract…

Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation

Jeremy D Shakun, Peter U Clark, Feng He, Shaun A Marcott, Alan C Mix, Zhengyu Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Andreas Schmittner & Edouard Bard

The covariation of carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and temperature in Antarctic ice-core records suggests a close link between CO2 and climate during the Pleistocene ice ages. The role and relative importance of CO2 in producing these climate changes remains unclear, however, in part because the ice-core deuterium record reflects local rather than global temperature. Here we construct a record of global surface temperature from 80 proxy records and show that temperature is correlated with and generally lags CO2 during the last (that is, the most recent) deglaciation. Differences between the respective temperature changes of the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere parallel variations in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation recorded in marine sediments. These observations, together with transient global climate model simulations, support the conclusion that an antiphased hemispheric temperature response to ocean circulation changes superimposed on globally in-phase warming driven by increasing CO2 concentrations is an explanation for much of the temperature change at the end of the most recent ice age.

For the scientifically challenged, what this paper reports is the result of analysis of 80 proxy temperature records from around the globe from a variety of latitudes. The seven proxies used included oxygen isotopes from ice cores, pollen from lake mud sediment and marine microfossils. The results paint a global picture of temperature change and when related back to the CO2 record indicate very strongly that the Vostok result was in fact a localised condition and that globally, temperature generally lagged CO2, the opposite of what the deniers would have the gullible believe.

One by one, the denialists’ simplistic, deceitful and woefully unscientific arguments are being demonstrably savaged by actual evidence. How long before they pull their heads out of their collective arses and start seeing reason? Only time, an ice free arctic, continued loss of species and rising sealevels will tell.

 

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Opinion v evidence

Occasionally one will stumble on a picture, a video or a piece of writing that is put together so well, it speaks immediately to you and resonates. The following piece is one such thing. It was written a couple of years ago but its message is likely to be relevant for some time yet…unfortunately. On reading it, I wondered if it could be improved in any way or if it was missing any vital components and for me, it isn’t. It beautifully sums up one of the biggest problems that those of us who need to communicate the issue of AGW and human induced climate change. It appeared on ABC’s The Drum Opinion and here it is.

Climate debate: opinion vs evidence

Stephan Lewandowsky

What exactly is “balance”? Our society rightly strives for balance, and many issues are deservedly considered by presenting a balanced set of opinions.

There are however clear cases in which the only balance that matters is the balance of evidence rather than of opinion: Serial killer Ivan Milat’s protestations of innocence should not — and did not — balance the evidence arrayed against him. The desire to cure AIDS with garlic and beetroot does not balance the medical consensus that the disease is caused by HIV and can only be beaten by retroviral drugs. And the current wave of sensationalism and distortion cannot balance the scientific consensus that climate change is real and is caused by human emissions.

The current descent of the climate debate into a cauldron of misrepresentations that are at odds with scientific reality must therefore be of concern.

It must be of concern that climate scientists can be publicly accused of having vested financial interests in their research, when in fact Australian research grants cannot be used to top up a researcher’s salary.

It must be of concern when segments of the national media frequently distort and misrepresent scientific articles and scientists’ statements in complete departure from accepted standards of journalistic honesty and decency.

It must be of concern when segments of the media echo the meme that “global warming stopped in 1998″ when in fact all years since 2000 — that is 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009 — are among the 10 hottest years ever recorded since 1880. The probability of this happening by chance is small.

It must be of concern that the current Leader of the Opposition has publicly dismissed climate science and instead cosily chats with a visiting British aristocrat who is a serial fabricator — an individual who has publicly misrepresented himself as a member of the House of Lords when he is not; who claims to have cured influenza as well as AIDS; who claims to have won the Falkland War by means of biological weapons; who accuses NASA of blowing up their own research satellites; and whose latest pseudo-mathematical pronouncements about climate change are at odds with past ice age cycles.

It must be of grave concern when the opinions of the same conspiracy theorists who believe that Prince Phillip runs the world’s drug trade are given credence by the media when it comes to climate change.

No, balance in media coverage does not arise from adding a falsehood to the truth and dividing by two. Balanced media coverage of science requires recognition of the balance of evidence.

What then is the true balance of evidence on climate change?

Fact is that the most recent survey of thousands of Earth scientists around the world revealed a 97 per cent agreement with the proposition that human activity is a contributor to climate change. This peer-reviewed study clarifies that the present “debate” about climate change is not actually a debate within the relevant scientific community.

Fact is that a recent analysis of nearly 1,000 peer reviewed publications by a prominent historian of science revealed no disagreement with the view that climate change is happening and is caused by human CO2 emissions. If each of those publications were presented on a poster, as is common at scientific conferences, the line of posters would stretch across the Sydney Harbour Bridge and back again. Yes, there are a few dissenting papers that have appeared in refereed journals — but to date none have withstood subsequent scrutiny.

Fact is that there is a strong scientific consensus on climate change and its human-made causes that is exhaustively summarised in the nearly 3,000 pages of the most recent IPCC report that draws on more than 18,000 sources. Tellingly, the lone error about Himalayan glaciers on page 493 of the contribution from Working Group 2 was brought to the public’s attention by … an IPCC lead author!

Anyone can experience this scientific consensus hands-on in a few seconds: Google “climate change” and you get nearly 60 million hits. Now go to the menu labelled “more” at the top, pull it down and choose the “scholar” option. 58 million hits disappear. The remaining scientific information will get you in touch with the reality on this planet, in the same way that applying the “scholar” filter after googling “sex” eliminates 500 million porn sites and leaves you with civilised discourse about sexuality.

Does this indubitable scientific consensus guarantee that the evidence concerning climate change is necessarily irrefutable?

No.

As with any other scientific fact, new evidence may come to light that can overturn established theories. Two core principles of science are scepticism and falsifiability — that is, scientific facts must be subject to sceptical examination and they must be refutable in principle. New evidence may overturn the current view that HIV causes AIDS, and new evidence may revise our expectation that gravity will have adverse consequences for those who jump off the Sydney Harbour Bridge. Likewise, new evidence may force a revision of our understanding of climate change.

It is however utterly inconceivable that the current scientific consensus about climate change will be overturned by conspiracy theories that are inversions of reality.

It is utterly inconceivable that the consensus on climate change will be weakened by mendacious misrepresentations in the media that fail to accurately represent the strength of scientific evidence.

It is utterly inconceivable that all the arguments against climate change that have been falsified multiple times will rise from the dead and overturn scientific knowledge.

Instead, the very fact that many of the roughly 100 falsified “sceptic” talking points are continually reiterated in public draws a clear dividing line between healthy scepticism and arrogant denialism.

Sceptics seek answers and scrutinise arguments before accepting the current state of scientific knowledge as fact. Denialists dismiss sound arguments, solid data, and experimental evidence in favour of propositions that have long been shown to be flawed.

The world’s pre-eminent scientific journal, Nature, therefore refers to those who cling to long-debunked pseudo-scientific conspiracy theories while dismissing the findings of thousands of peer-reviewed studies by their true label — denialists.

The potentially devastating consequences of denialism are brought into sharp focus by the sad history of South Africa’s AIDS policies. Despite having one of the world’s highest rates of HIV infections, the government of President Thabo Mbeki went against consensus scientific opinion 10 years ago and declined anti-retroviral drugs, preferring instead to treat AIDS with garlic and beetroot. Politicians even accused a leading South African immunologist of defending Western science and its “racist ideas” for his insistence on scientific treatment methods. According to a recent peer-reviewed Harvard study, this denialism cost the lives of more than 330,000 South Africans.

For that, President Mbeki and his associates are now held in richly deserved contempt around the world.

Precisely the same fate awaits denialists of climate change.

The laws of physics will relentlessly assert themselves, unswayed by public opinion, political shenanigans, or elections. Ultimately, the laws of physics will speak so loudly that no amount of wishful thinking can prevent them from being heard; but because any delay in taking action against climate change will increase the human and financial burden on future generations, it is our responsibility now to cease tolerating lies, misrepresentations, puerile accusations, and conspiracy theories that are unworthy of public discourse in a mature democracy.

Many spirited conversations about climate change can be had that examine the likely consequences for Australia and evaluate the best course of action — but those conversations must be firmly rooted in the core scientific principles of scepticism and falsifiability and they must not be contaminated by ignorance and denialism.

Stephan Lewandowsky is a Winthrop Professor and an Australian Professorial Fellow at the University of Western Australia.

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