Well the AGW denial blogosphere has lit up with claims that the Antarctic isn’t melting. Hooray! Global warming is dead! I knew it was a scam! Or is it? So, what’s causing all the excitement? A new study still in press but partially reported on by the American Geophysical Union that has found the ocean under the Fimbul Ice Shelf in East Antarctica isn’t warming as fast as models had predicted and as such the ice shelf isn’t melting as fast as it is gaining ice. The write-up all the deniers are cutting and pasting from, “The Register” and can be found here. It was so exciting it prompted my favourite denial blog to open with “Should we rely on computer models or examine real world data?” I’ll come back to that.
So what’s going on with the deniers? Well, it’s the same old thing of focusing on little things while ignoring the big things. What’s funny about this, or not so funny, is the fact that while the models may have been not quite accurate, that is no surprise given the paucity of data available for that area. Apparently it was too dangerous to obtain under ice measurements during the winter months at the time that the models were developed. So what will scientists do now that they have more accurate data? Will they try to bury it? Well, no. They will continue to improve the models and publish their results dispassionately, as they have done in this case. But does the apparent failure of this one model mean all the models are wrong? Well, as much as the deniers hate models and as much as they would like all the models to be wrong, that simply isn’t the case. But let’s get away from models for a second and look at the results and lets look at what scientists already know. The fact that this result has turned up in east Antarctica really isn’t a surprise given the stark differences between east and west Antarctica in terms of warming.
Quite a large difference between east and west I’d say. This is also why the headlines in the deniers blogs about Antarctica are also misleading. What’s happening in east Antarctica is very different to the west. But then that’s just like deniers to 1. misrepresent facts and 2. ignore the bigger picture. So go ahead deniers, crow about east Antarctica and the old models that didn’t work, but before you do, let’s have a look at some “real world data”. I don’t really need to say anything about these following graphs. They speak for themselves.
Crowing about little things while ignoring the large obvious things to justify a nonsensical irrational position is the ultimate in juvenile wilful ignorance. Say hello to an ice-free August/September in the Arctic by mid decade and a completely ice-free arctic by 2035…at the latest. By promoting the irrational denialist position, the vested interests and their science illiterate sycophantic brain-dead bloggers can take part of the blame for the 30 years of government inaction. Time that, if better spent, could have in all likelihood prevented this impending situation.