Something to crow about?

Well the AGW denial blogosphere has lit up with claims that the Antarctic isn’t melting. Hooray! Global warming is dead! I knew it was a scam! Or is it? So, what’s causing all the excitement? A new study still in press but partially reported on by the American Geophysical Union that has found the ocean under the Fimbul Ice Shelf in East Antarctica isn’t warming as fast as models had predicted and as such the ice shelf isn’t melting as fast as it is gaining ice. The write-up all the deniers are cutting and pasting from, “The Register” and can be found here. It was so exciting it prompted my favourite denial blog to open with “Should we rely on computer models or examine real world data?” I’ll come back to that.

So what’s going on with the deniers? Well, it’s the same old thing of focusing on little things while ignoring the big things. What’s funny about this, or not so funny, is the fact that while the models may have been not quite accurate, that is no surprise given the paucity of data available for that area. Apparently it was too dangerous to obtain under ice measurements during the winter months at the time that the models were developed. So what will scientists do now that they have more accurate data? Will they try to bury it? Well, no. They will continue to improve the models and publish their results dispassionately, as they have done in this case. But does the apparent failure of this one model mean all the models are wrong? Well, as much as the deniers hate models and as much as they would like all the models to be wrong, that simply isn’t the case. But let’s get away from models for a second and look at the results and lets look at what scientists already know. The fact that this result has turned up in east Antarctica really isn’t a surprise given the stark differences between east and west Antarctica in terms of warming.

50 year temperature anomalies – Antarctica (Steig 2009)

Quite a large difference between east and west I’d say. This is also why the headlines in the deniers blogs about Antarctica are also misleading. What’s happening in east Antarctica is very different to the west. But then that’s just like deniers to 1. misrepresent facts and 2. ignore the bigger picture. So go ahead deniers, crow about east Antarctica and the old models that didn’t work, but before you do, let’s have a look at some “real world data”. I don’t really need to say anything about these following graphs. They speak for themselves.

Crowing about little things while ignoring the large obvious things to justify a nonsensical irrational position is the ultimate in juvenile wilful ignorance. Say hello to an ice-free August/September in the Arctic by mid decade and a completely ice-free arctic by 2035…at the latest. By promoting the irrational denialist position, the vested interests and their science illiterate sycophantic brain-dead bloggers can take part of the blame for the 30 years of government inaction. Time that, if better spent, could have in all likelihood prevented this impending situation.

 

 

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13 Comments

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13 responses to “Something to crow about?

  1. What most fake sceptics – and most realists also – fail to appreciate is the link between the hole in the ozone layer above the Antarctic, which ‘… has caused a colder southern polar stratosphere… reinforcing the polar vortex over the Antarctic Circle. That vortex has helped keep cold, stormy weather… that might not otherwise have occurred to the same extent and intensity. As the “ozone hole” continues to recover during this century, the effects of global warming will become more clear… especially if ocean warming continues to melt sea-based Antarctic ice from below. ‘
    http://weatherdem.wordpress.com/2012/06/13/state-of-the-poles-june-2012-arctic-ice-extent-below-normal-antarctic-ice-near-climatological-normal/

  2. With regards to your final paragraph… I thought that once it goes in September 20xx, it will not come back 6 months later because of the latent heat of fusion of ice…?

    • I would have thought tha was the case, but then I guess that’s just the end of the multi-year ice. It will still get cold enough for annual ice in the winter for a couple more decades.

  3. john byatt

    It was the author’s own models of the Fimbul ice shelves that were corrected with this data.
    The lack of consistency in the Climate sceptics is most apparent from a recent cited paper regarding parts of the Andes being as warm during the MWP as at present, a paper hailed by the sceptics, reading the paper it relied on the Mann NH reconstructions to come to that conclusion. they did not know because they did not read it
    consistently inconsistent.

  4. john byatt

    We know that most of the warming has gone into the ocean, have the models underestimated the amount of ocean heat travelling to the Arctic?

    http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/06/ocean-heat-flux.html#more

  5. john byatt

    current arctic ice volume in june is now lower than all previous, yearly minimums except for 2010 and 2011, this is getting serious.

    http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.png?%3C?php%20echo%20time%28%29%20?

    • Can you tell me, John, why this has suddenly become an almost daily obsession with people (I have noticed the same thing on Climate Denial Crock of the Week lately)? Surely, the only thing that will be significant is whether or not the minimum in September is an all-time-record (which I fully expect it to be)?

  6. john byatt

    what is significant at the moment is that the june volume is now lower than all previous september minimums except 2010 and 2011, we are watching the death spiral of the Arctic, loss of Arctic ice at this time of year has far more albedo consequences than during september, The september record is not as important as is loss of or thin ice at this time of year

    help?

  7. john byatt

    This will bring back memories Martin, listen to the words

    johnny williamson SAIL THE NULLABOR

  8. john byatt

    We have another denier letter in the local paper this morning, have never had a reply to this person go in as yet so will put it here, If he googles himself he will find it.

    RE Joe Mcleod ( The Gympie Times June 28 ) “Mr Gissing says there are 25,000 polar bears across Canada’s Arctic” This is complete and utter rubbish. Mr Gissing a wildlife employee with the Nunuvat Inuit government made the claim in support of increasing the annual Inuit harvest. The survey itself was only conducted in the area of West Hudson bay which reported over 1000 beasts. University of Alberta scientists put the total number of Canadian polar bears at 13,800 ” The population is neither as abundant nor as healthy as the Inuit organization claimed last week. Polar Bears of Western Hudson bay might be only producing 20 to 50 percent as many cubs as they did fifty years ago when the bears had a month or more time to hunt seals on sea ice. Now global warming is forcing bears to spend more time on land where there is virtually no food. Females are 30 to 40 kilograms lighter than they were in the eighties and produce far fewer cubs, who are now less likely to live beyond two years”.

    Many of the Inuit, rather than hunt for their own quota, instead sell their permits to sporting shooters, a far more lucrative option, Hunters pay up to $50,000 for the privilege and then the skin is sold for a further $15,000. Overstating Canadian Polar bear numbers by 10,000 just to maintain this unsustainable killing spree for an animal in critical decline and possible extinction over coming decades due to the death spiral of the Arctic sea ice is morally reprehensible.