Idiotic denier graph of the day, August 26,2012

Yep, something a little different. I got my 3-year-old niece to draw on a piece of paper with a fat blue crayon and this is what she drew.

Conrats Steve Goddard! You have graduated from preschool.

Yes, ok. You got me, my niece would never use such a fat crayon to draw a graph, unless she wanted it to be fuzzy. This masterpiece is the work of Steve Goddard who, at his woefully misnamed blog, “Real Science” is trying to debunk a strawman. According to Steve, in 2007 AGW proponents, “went hysterical and told us that the Arctic would be ice free by 2008, 2010, 2012 or 2013″ and then provided this……..graph to debunk it. Of course, Steve ‘I just graduated preschool’ Goddard, didn’t provide a reference to these statements. So some mythical scientists have been debunked. Well done Steve, well done. You really showed…….them. Of course, my mate Geoffrey Brown faithfully cut and paste the same graph over at my favourite denier den, the official blog of the Climate Sceptics Party and included an admission to being a conspiracy theorist of the highest order, but that’s for another day.

So what of this….graph? Well, Steve supplied a link to the data he has used for his blue crayon special and it seems it goes all the way back to 1979. It’s no wonder he cherrypicked the last few years. Here’s a graph or two from the same website. First, what Steve’s magic blue crayon graph would have looked like if he used all the data.

 

Next, let’s take it back a little further and look at the longer term trend broken down into seasons.

So, there you have it. “Real Science” and real science. Which are you going to accept? Personally, I think I’ll go with the latter. I’m not really into crayons.

 

22 Comments

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22 responses to “Idiotic denier graph of the day, August 26,2012

  1. With Cryosphere Today, Uni Bremen, Arctic Roos, DMI, IJIS and now NSIDC reporting Arctic Sea Ice levels below the previous minimum, and continuing to decline, with two weeks to go before this year’s minimum, I had wondered how the deniers would spin this year’s Arctic melt. It takes amazing ingenuity to present the Arctic as anything but a disaster. Thanks for the “heads up”.

  2. I have just been over to Tamino’s place. Watts is saying some amazing things too. But that is no surprise: http://tamino.wordpress.com/2012/08/26/wuwt-follies/#more-5574

    • Watts is hopeless. He becomes more and more irrelvant with every post. He has invested so much narciccism and false pride into promoting his position he will be one of the last bastions of wilful ignorance even after most of his sycophants have deserted him.

  3. You aren’t being very intelligent. After 2007, experts forecast an ice free Arctic for 2008, 2010, 2012, 2013 and later 2016. No progress is being made towards that goal since 2007.

    • Did they? Where are your references Steve? I can understand that a number of non-experts may have seen the massive drop from 2005-6 to 2007 and drawn a line straight to the bottom and made that ‘prediction’ but I very much doubt the experts would have. You may like to take the advice of non-experts but I don’t. But let’s face it, you are just trying to tell a story that suits your position and honesty is not very high on your list of priorities. So, show us your references Steve

      • john byatt

        Prof Wadhams said: “His (model) is the most extreme but he is also the best modeller around. It is really showing the fall-off in ice volume is so fast that it is going to bring us to zero very quickly. 2015 is a very serious prediction and I think I’m pretty much persuaded that’s when it’ll happen.”

        No volume equals no extent and no area,

        but it is not 2015 yet so whacking in 2016 is not yet falsified steve, stupid statement if you think that it confirms your claim

        No progress towards the goal? 2012 (corrected typo – Mike) the year that nearly all records in all data sets have been toppled in August,

  4. john byatt

    Steve does not accept PIOMAS as it is just a model,

    https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas

    a model that is being confirmed

    http://osdir.com/ml/geoengineering/2012-04/msg00118.html

    • When we do go ice free, Steve has his fallback position that it’s natural and he’ll direct you to countless newspaper clippings from 80 years ago as evidence. I wonder if he’ll offer up photos of the USS Skate popping up through the ice as evidence like Geoffrey does?

      • john byatt

        When you think of the different ways they could have spun this, storm, volcanoes, wind, etc, I was fucking aghast that they have gone with “not happening” this is not being sceptical, it is denial in its most obvious form , deny the facts.

  5. john byatt

    Left at TCS

    Your comment will be visible after approval

    John Byatt
    A long term view always helps geoff, not even at minimum yet another two weeks to go

    http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v224/Chiloe/12_Climate/sea_ice_N_min_to_date.pngl

  6. john byatt

    Geoff put up my comment but seems that i am not allowed to direct him to the actual ashes ceremony Skate photo, redirected or site problem

    • I noticed WTFIWWAW had done the Skate thing a few years ago and had also used the incorrect photo at the top of the story. Granted he did put the correct one further down. I seem to recall bothering to do some research on the Skate at the time and read a log of some sort. There was also an explanation of how the ice fractures and refreezes and gets weak spots that are substantially thinner that the sub locates and this iswherethey push up through. A couple of metres of ice is no problem for a very large nuclear submarine.

      ________________________________

  7. john byatt

    reply to bill pounder there

    Bill those are Arctic sea ice anomalies of extent not actual extent

    here is the IPCC extent data for 20th century that Goddard endorses

    http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/figure-10-13.html

  8. Lazarus

    Good catch and well worthy of a mirror on my own modest Blog.

  9. Reblogged this on Standard Climate and commented:
    24/7 mass production “painting GRAPHS”. I don’t know where do they get data.