David Archibald – denialism to the max

Anthony Watts loves having David Archibald as a guest poster. Why? Because he sounds so sciency it must be true. Nevermind that his predictions are so whacky you would have to have been living under a rock to take him seriously.

I’ve written about Archibald before here, here and here. The first of those addresses his whacky 4 degrees temperature drop prediction and the other two deal with some blatant dishonesty. For those, not familiar with David Archibald he is a “prominent” climate denier listed as a climate expert by the Heartland Institute and the equally dodgy Institute for World Politics. It is interesting to note that both of those sites mention his ties to the mining industry as “working in the field of oil exploration” but it goes much further than that. I am currently doing a bit of research on David Archibald and the way he does business in the mining industry. At the risk of digressing I’ll just mention that in 2003 he became managing director of a company called Oilex. He talked the company’s prospects up beforelisting it on the ASX. In lieu of his $150000 salary he opted (for one year) to be paid in shares, supposedly as a show of confidence in the company.  Well, the share price went up and then crashed leaving investors millions of dollars out-of-pocket. Archibald simply quit, cashed in his free shares and collected $150000 as part of his contract.  Now he has teamed up with a fellow crackpot, Ian Plimer, in another oil exploration deal that has an eery similarity to the Oilex fiasco. Archibald is opting to forego one year’s salary ($250000) while the company, Yeeda Oil is floated. Deja vu? It look like an easy way to make money by doing nothing. Is it a scam? I hope to let you know if I get time to pursue the matter.

But like I said, I digress. So, what has David Archibald mentioned over at Anthony’s? Well, basically the same crap he’s been peddling for years but this paragraph is most notable. Emphasis is mine. He says…

Insolation is already low enough to trigger glacial onset. For the last 8,000 years, the Earth has been cooling at 0.25°C per thousand years, so the oceans are losing heat. We just have to get to that trigger point at which snows linger through the northern summer. Solar Cycle 25 might be enough to set it off. By the end of this decade, we will be paying more attention to the Rutgers Global Snow Lab data.  

There is something seriously wrong with this guy. Let’s look first at solar insolation. This graph is from PNAS. doi:10.1073/pnas.0703873104

Next, the statement that the earth has been cooling for the past 8000 years at a rate of 0.25 degrees C per thousand years so the ocean is losing heat. Really? The trick here, by Archibald, is to give the impression that the trend of the last 8000 years is continuing and the fact is, up until the last 50 years or so, he actually correct, but to claim that he oceans are cooling now, which is the impression he is trying to give is a blatant distortion of the truth through omission. The fact is that in the last 40 years we have increased the temperature by more than triple the amount it decreased over the past 3000 years.  Ocean warming is currently immense.

Change in Earth’s Total Heat Content.

Next, Archibald mentions snow cover. I would suggest that “to get to that trigger point” there will have to be a massive turnaround in snow cover. Just so you know, I pulled this graph from WUWT.

Finally, what I do appreciate is Archibald giving us a timeframe for his ridiculous assertions. By the end of the decade, presumably we will start to see the effects of us slipping into an ice age. Well, he can be certain that many of us will be reminding him of his “predictions”. In order to make such statements you must crank your wilful ignorance and subsequent denialism to the max. A few vested interests in the oil industry certainly helps too.

24 Comments

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24 responses to “David Archibald – denialism to the max

  1. Keith AB

    I think there is something wrong with your “Earth’s Total Heat Content” graph.

    • Thanks for pointing that out Keith. I had two to choose from and grabbed the wrong one. The vagueries of posting past my bedtime I guess. The graph is mislabelled. I have subsequently added a caption that points out it is the change in Earth’s total heat content over time.

  2. john byatt

    Whacky was a good choice of word, I just shook my head on reading the post from Archibald, WTF?

  3. Keith AB

    I don’t think you meant to say that. Perhaps the base line needs shifting.

    What would that show I wonder?

    • john byatt

      Hi Keith, sea level is rising by over 3mm a year at present, more than half of that is due to thermal expansion, The graph is the amount of heating since the 1950’s, a baseline, it is the current anomaly from that baseline, note “ocean heating”

  4. David Artchibald - WTF Indeed

    I’d like to nominate this WUWT fool from David Archibald’s warning of global freezing WUWT article.

    motherofdragons says:
    September 17, 2012 at 3:30 am
    This is a very interesting article, Anthony. Most scientific researches and predictions that the public are not very much receptive to end up to be true. We just have to know now when will the next glaciation will happen and how we can prepare for it.

    A typical WUWT fool. Thinks that the public not being receptive to “scientific researches” is the one true indication that the “researches” must be accurate.

    This is the sort of brain dead idiot that Watts is using for peer review. YeeHaw!

  5. David Archibald keeps very quiet about his repeatedly having to bail out of insane oil exploration deals. If I had failed to strike black gold as many times as him, I would think twice before making predictions about things that lie outside the area of my (generally not accepted) expertise.

  6. David Artchibald - WTF Indeed

    I wonder if the following response to David Archibald’s post on the coming Ice Age on WUWT will be disappeared:

    johnpetroff says:
    September 18, 2012 at 10:25 am

    To kadaka:

    According to the blog, Watts Up is “…the world’s most viewed climate website.” I’m presuming Watts is the sole owner if the site. All that advertising you see, he gets paid for. My guess, and this is a pure guess, is he earns 7 figures. Isn’t that what “the most viewed climate website” would pull in?

    That is paid. Watts doesn’t publish his salary. Rush Limbaugh does. Rush earns $50 million per year being a paid propagandist. The truth is free by the way. “Spin” or “propaganda” needs to be paid for.

    For Anthony Watts, the more “no global warming” sentiment he stirs up, the more he gets paid in advertising. That’s the simple reality of our world. I’m not being critical. I’m just saying be knowledgeable and understand that.

    As for me, I am an unpaid observer. And I look at the data you posted, that data Anthony posts, the information the government agencies post and they don’t post theirs “for profit” or for “advertising dollars,” they simply post the numbers they see, and everybody’s numbers say the same thing: we are in a warm period that does fluctuate and is at present getting warmer.

    I hear the argument “it’s natural.” I hear the argument “man’s effects are zero to inconsequential.” I’m just asking “Are they?”

    And I’m asking you skeptics, do you ever listen to the other side? Are you observers or blind little sheep?

    I am rooting for cooling. I was ecstatic when the Bering Sea set a record Ice Extent this last spring. I was happy the Arctic as a whole approached what could be called “normal” or “average” Ice Extent last spring. I’m happy Antarctica is very near it’s record now and am hoping it manages a new one.

    BUT.. we’ve just set a record low summer Minimum Ice Extent in the Northern Hemisphere by blowing out the old record. And that’s by any organization’s standards of measurement.

    How come you skeptics don’t talk about that and say “If we’re cooling, why did we just set a record low Arctic Ice Extent?” “If we’re cooling or stable, why are temperatures still climbing?” “If temperatures are climbing, can we genuinely say they are static or cooling?”

    And I hear the argument “Cooling is just around the corner.” Is it? We’ll find out won’t we.

    I do agree with the post “it’s nice to be warm.” It is. It just MAY NOT

    • Keith AB

      Is it that bad?

      Are you so lost in the miasma of AGW that you really believe such nonsense?

      We live on an Earth that simply is. If you adapt it works well for you. If you want to live in the past then try and change it. Not possible.

      We are our future. Adjust and adapt, that is the real way. This guilt trip over human success is just self defeating. What is, is.

      Time to either improve what you have or accept it for what it is.

      • john byatt

        Interesting keith, you cannot see any global temperature increase that you consider to be beyond adaption?

      • Try to picture ecosystem collapse but on a global scale. That is the very real possibility. It is human folly to ignore the fact that we are just another species, dependent on many other species within the global ecosystem. It may not be possible to adapt or arrogantly geoengineer our way out of the problem. Why take the risk? Why not act in a precautionary manner? I’d rather make a type 1 error than a type 2. The consequences are far less serious.

      • HarryW

        Nice, Keith AB…..all opinion, fact-free, tasty, easy to swallow, aND it completely absolves humanity of any/all responsibility! PERFECT!

        /sarc

      • Craig King

        @uknowispeaksense . . well at least you understood it. Now if you can gain some perspective you will grasp the context.

    • I am surprised it made it through moderation. They’ll probably catch it eventually. I’ll check back on it in a few days and see if it’s still there. If not, it will get a post here like NeilT’s disappearing comment.

  7. john byatt

    This guy from the Galileo movement is beyond debate, to him it is all a hoax, even believes that the current extraordinary melting of the arctic at present is a hoax,

    http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com.au/2012/09/alarmists-get-great-news.html?showComment=1347951823886#c7403379486305700887

  8. I am fed up trying to tell people on WUWT – let alone some failed oil-finder-cum-fortune-teller like Archibald – the truth but here it is: There will never be another ice age unless or until humans go extinct. This is because, leaving aside the fact that we are not due another ice age for about 60k years, if ever one were to come unexpectedly, we could just burn some extra fossil fuel or release some sequestrated CO2 to make it go away again…

    http://lackofenvironment.wordpress.com/2012/03/19/ice-age-not-for-60-thousand-years-if-ever/

    • David Artchibald - WTF Indeed

      Give David Archibald his due. Not only has he managed to fit some curves to prove his version of climate change, he has also produced snake oil in the form of a cancer cure that is still being promoted in his Institute of World Politics (IWP) profile. Apparently David Archibald figured he would cure cancer in his spare time, since people with medical qualifications working full time couldn’t do it. This “cure” has apparently been recognised as a FAIL, according to some website that was discussing the Yeeda Oil float. I wonder if any cancer victims took his cure and held off on other treatments. It is really really sad.

      The float of Yeeda has been delayed, presumably due to lack of takers. It is rescheduled for the end of this month. I believe that the ASX has said that they will suspend the shares if the company does not finish drilling the well by the end of the year, It’s the wet season up north. Good luck getting the equipment to the site, much less finishing a hole in 3 months.

      If the shares are suspended, it looks like Archibald will begin collecting his expenses and his $250,000 salary a year and Pilmer will get his money, even if the company does nothing at all. That’s my read of it anyway. Investors won’t be able to even realise their loss for tax purposes if the shares are suspended.

      I wonder if investors will be the only ones who get drilled.

  9. David Artchibald - WTF Indeed

    I wondered if enough fools were parted from their money to get this Yeeda Oil float/David Archibald/Ian Pilmer retirement fund off the ground. It was pushed back at least twice, the most recent to this past Monday.

    Now it is extended to 8th of October 2012.

    How is a well supposed to be started in the rainy season after 8 Oct and finished before 31 Dec? My recollection is that the shares, if listed, will be halted if this isn’t done. Apparently a lot of roads close up that way in the rainy season. Getting personnel and RIGS could be problematic in such a short time.

    What about people who put their hard earned money in before the original deadline? Can they pull out? Once those shares are halted, how are they going to get restarted or do David Archibald and Ian Pilmer get to draw board fees until they run out of money?

    Someone who is good on the phone should call the ASX and/orASIC and ask them what would happen. If they redistribute money by closing the company, I imagine that all the common shares would get the same pennies per share. So if “founders” paid 1 cent per share and the subscribers pay 20 cents per share, and there is 3 cents per share left, then founders get a 300% return on their money and subscribers get an 85% loss. mmmmm……..

    At a certain point the ask seem slike it would be impossible (ie getting the wells dug), so accepting money seems…. well, not nice.

    Do any lawyers know what sort of lawsuits could be launched against the promoters if the well doesn’t come off but they take the money and let the listing lapse?

  10. David Archibald - WTF Indeed

    It looks like Yeeda Oil, (YDO) , the potential cash cow for Ian Pilmer and David Archibald, Climate Change Expert Deniers and Solar Cycle Magican, is not going ahead in its current form.

    According to the ASX, the application to list has been withdrawn.

    http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/upcomingFloatDetail.do?asxCode=YDO