Pause? Really? Tell that to the Arctic.

I’m not going to go into all the garbage deniers spit out about the “pause” in global surface temperatures. For a start, there is no pause and even if there was, the global surface temperature record is only a small part of the picture. Regardless, I am yet to see a single credible explanation from any deniers for why natural systems continue to act as though there is no pause. Take the Arctic. The following pictures and video say more than anything I can write.

seaicevolume

What strikes me the most about this graph isn’t the September trend but the April trend. Every year the melt season is starting from a lower start point. Every year there is less and less volume. I wonder if global warming were to suddenly stop and level out if we haven’t already crossed a tipping point that would see ice continue to decline regardless? This continual loss in volume is demonstrated to dramatic effect in this video looking at the dramatic loss of multiyear ice.

Finally, area…

thiscan'tbegood

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4 Comments

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4 responses to “Pause? Really? Tell that to the Arctic.

  1. You nailed it. It’s worth noting that albedo loss through 2011 is equal to a 25% addition to the human heat forcing from all CO2 emissions (1979 to 2011). My opinion is that we are locked in to at least 2-3 C warming and most sea ice loss even under a cold-turkey fossil fuels situation. And that’s probably not going to happen. At best, with rapid mitigation we could make it 3-4 C long-term. No mitigation and we are heading for worse than the Permian. Why? Because the climate change is so much faster than at any time in the Geological record. In 100 years we could have 5-9 C warming or more. That’s never happened. It took 60,000 years for the world to warm by 13 C during the Permian extinction…