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More garbage from the Climate Sceptics Party

“Renowned engineer and aviation/space pioneer Burt Rutan, was named “100 most influential people in the world, 2004″ by Time Magazine and Newsweek called him “the man responsible for more innovations in modern aviation than any living engineer.” Rutan has received “hundreds of awards including: Presidential Citizen’s Medal, Two Collier Trophies, Academy of Achievement Golden Plate and the Charles Lindbergh Award. He has developed 44 new aircraft types since 1972 including; Voyager, SpaceShipOne, and the first commercial spaceship – SpaceShipTwo. Rutan, declared himself skeptical of man-made global warming.”

Burt Rutan has a very impressive CV. He clearly knows a lot about aviation engineering. His expertise in that area is almost unrivaled. He is the real deal…. but his OPINION on man-made global warming is worthless on a professional basis.

This paragraph comes from a “report” put out by Climatedepot.org titled, “More Than 1000 International Scientists Dissent Over Man-Made Global Warming Claims. Scientists Continue to Debunk Fading “Consensus” in 2008 & 2009 & 2010″ and is linked on the Climate Sceptics Party (CSP) website. Now, I’ve covered the issue of long lists in a previous entry called “Does size matter?” so I won’t get too much into that again other than to say that when it comes to science, quality is more important than quantity. The climate sceptics also link to two other lists. One is the seriously debunked and much ridiculed Oregon petition with its more than 30000 “scientists” who disagree with AGW. In case you are unfamiliar, less than 0.1% of the signatories on the petition actually identify themselves as climatologists and the vast majority identify as having a Bachelor degree “or equivalent”. The rest are medical doctors, dentists, vets, lawyers, economists, chemists………… you get the picture. The other is a link to a Wikipedia entry with a list of the usual suspects from the climate denial industry, most of whom are associated with the oil-funded thinktanks in the US like Heartland, Georce C Marshall and the like. I especially like the inclusion of Fred Singer on that list, the same Fred Singer who took money from tobacco lobbyists and spouted the health benefits of smoking.

Anyway, back to the list of 1000. I’ll admit I hadn’t actually heard of this list until I found it on the CSP website so I thought I’d take a good look at it. Now, first things first. 1000 scientists sounds like a very impressive number of scientists…but is it really? According to AAAS, in 2006 there were approximately 5.8 million scientists in the world in all OECD countries plus Argentina, China, Romania, Russia, Singapore, Slovenia, South Africa and Taiwan. This number does not include scientists in India. That means Climatedepot managed to rustle up 0.00017% of all the scientists in the world to put forward their dissenting position. The next thing to do is to look at the disciplines of science these scientists specialise in. Rather than going through the full list, I will assume that the scientists they have gone to the trouble of highlighting are the cream of their crop. Here are their listed professions… Director of Technical Services & Development for U.S. Magnesium, Senior Research Fellow at the National Institute of Aerospace, Physicist, Associate Professor of Mechanical Engineering, Head of geomagnetic variations laboratory at the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radiowave Propagation of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Geologist, Chemistry Professor, Research ChemistClimatologistEngineer and aviation/space pioneer, Atmospheric Physicist, Earth scientists, Biologist, Hebrew University Professor, Astrophysicist. Look everyone, a real climatologist…..or is he? His name is Dr Hans Jelbring and he works at the Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics Unit at Stockholm University. As far as I can tell, this Swedish climatologist has never published a single paper in the field of climatology. Oh well, that’s a shame.

Anyway, my point is this, scientifically illiterate people like those within the Climate Sceptics Party don’t seem to understand that just as oils ain’t oils, scientists ain’t scientists and that there many different disciplines within “science”. Not only that, but there are disciplines within disciplines. I recall in my first year of university writing a research assignment about a particular animal. I was extremely interested in how this animal concentrated urine to extremely toxic levels whilst it was in stasis. I went to a leading ecologist at the university who had written several papers about this particular animal and asked him about the mechanisms  it used to concentrate urine. He replied, “How would I know? That’s physiology.” This was a real eye opener for me into how specialised scientists are. The way I like to try and explain this to laypeople is to suggest that when their house needs rewiring, they will call a tradesman, but not just any tradesman. They will call an electrician because plumbers don’t rewire houses. It is the same with scientists. If you want information about climate science, you go to a climatologist, not a geologist or a chemistry professor or a space pioneer.

So what the CSP are doing is relying on non-specialists, more often than not with vested interests, to give them information. I can only wonder, if they will apply the same logic if their house needs rewiring or if they need to know how to treat brain cancer? Rather then take the advice of specialist oncologists will they instead seek advice from the retired veterinarian up the road? After all, he’s a doctor too.

So why do they do it? I think deep down, the CSP know they can’t possibly cater to mainstream voters so they deliberately target and play to the fringe elements, the far rightwing, gun obsessed, loony Christian ultraconservatives who for whatever reason failed science in school. Maybe that’s their tactic or maybe they are just anti-establishment for the sake of being anti-establishment with very little understanding of anything they are talking about. Whatever it is, they are a neverending source of giggles for me.

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Climate Sceptics Party – oh dear!

In a democracy it is important that all parts of society feel they are represented by their elected officials and it seems there is a new political party on the scene. Well, they aren’t really new as they have been around for a few years now, but the demographic they wish to represent is quite obvious when you take a look at what they stand for. For a start, it is imperative that for this party to represent you, you must be stupid. I was going to come up with a long list of human character flaws that would appear to be a requirement but just leaving it at stupid will do.

My normal position would normally be to not pay too much attention to idiots like this for fear of inadvertently promoting them but I don’t think they have much of a chance at securing the 14% they need to get someone into a senate spot. They certainly have no chance of ever securing a lower house seat in any electorate…ever.  The reason, is that they are pretty much clueless about everything they stand for. So let’s take a look at what they are about.

Oh, I should probably mention who they are. They call themselves the Climate Sceptics Party. When you go to their website, the idiocy starts almost immediately with a blurb from their party president,  Bill Koutalianos. He begins

“Dear Fellow Australians,

I welcome you to the Climate Sceptics Party site. We began our party in 2008 when a number of climate sceptic bloggers and thinkers realized, there were no political parties that were standing on the principle of truth in climate science. The apparent politicization of science lead us to form a hard nosed common sense party, in order to drag Australian politics back to practical basics.”

Now, I don’t know about you but a political party formed from climate denier bloggers and “thinkers” is hardly a strong basis for a political party. Climate denial bloggers continually demonstrate a severe lack of intellect and understanding of very basic science. Most of them don’t have an individual thought of their own, merely cutting and pasting garbage from intellectual lightweights like Andrew Bolt, “Lord” Monckton and Anthony Watts. What I really appreciate though is the distinction between “sceptic bloggers” and “thinkers”. I would agree that the two are mutually exclusive. What I find amazing, is the complaint that science has been politicised when they themselves are a political party which is patently based on an anti-science platform. Hypocrisy?

 “We are not merely a one issue party. Our policies are based on true science as opposed to politicized science, we are pro small business, we are for minimal government, and we are against the extreme green religion (a belief that clouds the thinking of the two major parties and many policy areas) .”

Not merely a one issue party? Then why call yourselves the Climate Sceptics Party? This mob are so “one issue” they sit comfortably alongside the former Nuclear Disarmament Party, The Fishing Party, The Sex Party, The Marijuana Party and numerous other fringe elements in terms of their tunnel vision. Their idea of “true science” is scary because according to these clowns, anyone cutting and pasting misrepresented scientific papers can qualify as a true scientist, but more on that later.

“In short, we know there is no scientist in the world that has evidence CO2 will overheat the planet. Six scientific peer reviewed papers show that CO2 cannot cause dangerous global warming. We are not just against the carbon tax or emissions trading scheme but against the need to reduce CO2 emissions in any way that damages our economy. CO2 is plant food and the more there is in the air, the more food we can grow.”

This is my favourite paragraph because it gets to the heart of how scientifically illiterate this lot are. I’ll deal with the last sentence first. The denial meme “CO2 is plant food” is so simplistic it beggars belief. Deniers will quote this or that glasshouse study as evidence for their meme, failing to understand the fundamental rule that you cannot extrapolate a glasshouse experiment to real world situations. In the real world, increased CO2 comes with increased temperature, altered rainfall, changes in nitrification, increased pest and disease susceptibility not to mention changes in the latitudes or elevation at which plants can grow. No, it is much more convenient for these idiots to wilfully ignore these things and just spout the meme knowing that some equally illiterate members of the public will agree. But let’s get back to the “six scientific peer reviewed papers” link. Clicking this link takes you to a Senate Submission where the Climate Sceptics Party repeat a number of denialist memes. I won’t bother listing them here but here is their list of references for their assertions.

 1http://www.ocean-sci-discuss.net/6/31/2009/osd-6-31-2009.pdf

2http://sciences.blogs.liberation.fr/home/files/Cazenave_et_al_GPC_2008.pdf

3http://www.pas.rochester.edu/~douglass/papers/KD_InPress_final.pdf

4http://www.jcronline.org/doi/abs/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-10-00141.1

5http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/jcoastres-d-10-00157-1.pdf

6http://landshape.org/enm/files/2009/07/EE-20-4_7-Stockwell.pdf

7http://www.fel.duke.edu/~scafetta/pdf/opinion0308.pdf

8http://arxiv.org/pdf/1005.4639v1

9http://www.space.dtu.dk/upload/institutter/space/forskning/06_projekter/isac/wp_501a.pdf

10http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/StottEtAl.pdf

11http://www.space.dtu.dk/upload/institutter/space/forskning/05_afdelinger/sun-climate/full_text_publications/svensmark_2007cosmoclimatology.pdf

12http://www.sciencebits.com/files/articles/CalorimeterFinal.pdf

13http://vixra.org/pdf/1108.0004v1.pdf

14http://www.masterresource.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Lindzen_Choi_APJAS_final.pdf

15http://www.legnostorto.com/allegati/Lindzen_Choi_ERBE_JGR_v4.pdf

16http://www.drroyspencer.com/Spencer_07GRL.pdf

17http://www.drroyspencer.com/Spencer-and-Braswell-08.pdf

18http://noconsensus.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/spencer-braswell-jgr-20101.pdf

19http://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/3/8/1603/pdf

20http://www.met.hu/doc/idojaras/vol111001_01.pdf

21http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/E&E_21_4_2010_08-miskolczi.pdf

22http://www.met.hu/idojaras/IDOJARAS_vol108_No4_01.pdf

23http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1034/j.1600-0870.2002.01382.x/abstract

24http://arxiv.org/pdf/1104.4002v1

25http://rossmckitrick.weebly.com/uploads/4/8/0/8/4808045/mmh_asl2010.pdf

26http://www.scribd.com/doc/904914/A-comparison-of-tropical-temperature-trends-with-model-predictions?page=6

27http://itia.ntua.gr/getfile/850/3/documents/2008EGU_ClimatePredictionPrSm_.pdf

28http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/2011/07/08/new-paper-illustrates-another-failure-of-the-ipcc-mullti-decadal-global-model-predictions-on-the-warming-in-the-tropical-upper-troposphere-models-versus-observations-by-fu-et-al-2011/

29http://pdfserve.informaworld.com/798817__928051726.pdf

30http://benthamscience.com/open/toascj/articles/V005/74TOASCJ.pdf

31http://landshape.org/enm/files/2010/10/Critique-of-DECR-EE.pdf

32http://www.aibs.org/bioscience-press-releases/resources/03-07.pdf

33http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/ets-to-shrink-regional-growth/story-e6frg6nf-1225691476399

34http://www.tia.asn.au/news/media-activity/clean-energy-finance-corp-to-be-set-up

35http://bravenewclimate.com/2010/08/12/zca2020-critique/

36http://www.worldcoal.org/coal-the-environment/coal-use-the-environment/improving-efficiencies/

37http://theclimatescepticsparty.blogspot.com/2011/07/selling-carbon-tax-in-never-land.html

38http://landshape.org/enm/renewables-wake-up-and-smell-the-rossi/

39http://hro001.wordpress.com/2010/04/14/uns-climate-bible-gets-21-fs-on-report-card/

40http://reviewipcc.interacademycouncil.net/report/Climate%20Change%20Assessments,%20Review%20of%20the%20Processes%20&%20Procedures%20of%20the%20IPCC.pdf

41http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/audit/anao-request-audit-bom.pdf

42 http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/latest/8916664/carbon-tax-billions-to-help-poor-nations/

43 http://www.tia.asn.au/news/media-activity/clean-energy-finance-corp-to-be-set-up

44 http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/113676.html

This could potentially be the most impressive list of garbage I’ve ever seen. Blogs, newspaper clippings, opinion pieces, industry websites etc. The only lists of garbage that outstrip this one for garbageness are Popular Technology’s list of 900 and the Oregon petition. If, on the off chance that there are six peer reviewed papers, I will be 100% certain they are being misunderstood or misrepresented in some way as is the usual thing when deniers meet science.

“We reject the Murray Darling Basin Plan because it is based on flawed climate assumptions. Instead, we support bringing a percentage of the freshwater that flows into the sea from Northern Australia, into our Murray Darling basin.”

That’s right, this mob seriously wants to take water out of northern flowing rivers and divert the water into the Murray Darling catchment. I can only wonder if they have considered what the effect of reduced environmental flows would have on those rivers, not to mention any important wetlands downstream? Do they even know what an environmental flow is? Would they have cease to take levels and where would they place them and on what basis would they decide on those levels? Would it be an ecological one or economical one? I think I know, but let’s pretend they got their way, how the hell would they pay for it? There’s no mention of cost or feasibility.

This is only the start of the craziness. I could go on, but I think I might make these guys a pet project and focus on one or two things at a time so consider this a teaser. I will endeavour to engage them and see if they have any actual policies they plan to implement or if their policies are just simple one paragraph statements filled with non-descript rhetoric based on false premises, as it appears on their policy webpage. Watch this space.

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Does size matter?

Does size matter? Now, while I am not talking specifically about the size of a man’s penis here, I will touch on that briefly. We are all aware of the jokes about men with small penises and subsequent feelings of inadequacy driving big cars or owning big dogs or posing with photos of big fish. This particular Freudianesque hypothesis has even been used in commercials aimed at shaming young men into driving sensibly.

This brings me to the subject of big lists. What is it about some climate deniers that makes them think a big list of names of people or papers makes their position valid? It would, if they were interested in sourcing quality information as opposed to quantity. A classic example is the “Global Warming Petition Project” which currently boasts “31,487 American scientists have signed this petition, including 9,029 with PhDs “. This statement is amazing in that they are blatantly admitting upfront that 22458 of their signatories don’t have a PhD. Now, I don’t mean any disrespect to those out there who are working in scientific disciplines who haven’t completed a PhD but the fact is, in scientific circles a PhD is usually a minimum requirement to be considered an expert in any field. What’s worse about this petition is that until recently you only had to hold a Bachelor’s degree or equivalent to sign.  Now I don’t know about you but when I go to my doctor, I wouldn’t be too happy if she suddenly informed me she only had a medical degree equivalent. Anyway, there is an excellent YouTube video  from greenman3610 that explains how ridiculous this big list is.

Next is the big list of “peer reviewed” papers at the popular technology blog site  which boasts “900+ Peer-Reviewed Papers Supporting Skeptic Arguments Against ACC/AGW Alarm”.  This is one of my favourites, not because it is a great website, but because it is a great tool to demonstrate scientific illiteracy, ignorance and deception at its best. For a start, the person running the website is a Computer Analyst and his three contributing website authors are a Computer Engineer, a Computer Scientist and an Electrical Engineer. I’m not too sure their areas of expertise qualify them to determine good climate science from dodgy climate science. It might explain why some of these “peer reviewed” papers are published in journals like The Electricity Journal, Iron and Steel Technology and my absolute favourite the New Concepts in Global Tectonics newsletter, the editor of which recently declared that because Japanese seismologists failed to predict the devastating earthquake and subsequent tsunami of a year ago, that the entire Theory of Plate Tectonics is patently incorrect. One “peer reviewed” paper in the infamous 900 that appears in the prestigious New Concepts in Global Tectonics newsletter is from one Lance Endersbee, who as far as I can make out from his “peer reviewed” paper, has no professional affiliations or qualifications for that matter. Anyway, he claims that ocean warming “is not due to the influence of Man, and probably due to a change in the geothermal regime of heat flow from the fracture zones in the floor of the northern oceans.” Wow! Now there’s a claim and a half. The amount of energy required from that relatively small area to heat all the oceans by as much as…….I’m not even going to bother. It’s some simple maths for anyone reading this who might be bothered but this is too absurd to waste time on.

So, is this the kind of standard that is set for this list of “900+ peer reviewed” papers? Well, yes and no. To be fair, there are a number of papers in this list from reputable journals like Nature and Geophysical Research Letters but this raises the question, do these papers actually debunk AGW? The answer is no. The person running this blog site likely hasn’t actually read any more than the abstracts of those papers, spotted a phrase or two that could be interpreted as shedding some doubt on some minor part of the AGW or human induced climate change hypotheses for example a particular statistical technique, but that is generally all. A classic case in point is this paper on the list from Frank et al. To the uninitiated this might appear to say that climate model predicted warming is out by as much as 80% where in fact it says “~80% less potential amplification of ongoing global warming” which is of course not the same thing. Also, in light of the fact that the error bars in their p.p.m.v. CO2 per °C calculation are very large, that 80% less potential is at the maximum end anyway. Plus, the authors are only discussing the CO2 released as a result of positive feedbacks and are not dealing AT ALL with the direct input of CO2 from man-made sources. This paper supports the position that the current rate of warming as being both anthropogenic and serious in nature, which actually opposes the claim of the blog site to be presenting  “900+ Peer-Reviewed Papers Supporting Skeptic Arguments Against ACC/AGW Alarm”. So, why include it? There are only 2 possible reasons.

1, the blog site owner doesn’t understand climate science sufficiently well enough to really know what he’s doing, or

2. He knows enough to understand what I have just mentioned about the paper and is including it because he knows it will be misleading to laypeople.

I hope its 1 but suspect its 2. Of course, when quality isn’t as important as quantity and the intention is to deceive, the paucity of real peer reviewed papers from reputable journals that debunk AGW and human induced climate change force these people to the fringes for information or to nitpicking papers they know will be too technical for laypeople to understand. The quality doesn’t matter to these people and it doesn’t matter to that proportion of the public who wish to remain wilfully ignorant because the truth is too scary, or those who are generally anti-establishment or the plain gullible whose scientific ignorance prevents them from understanding what comprises quality science. It is easier for this last group to accept simplistic garbage than the often complex real science.

In my opinion, there must be a change in our education systems in the teaching of science and it needs to start in the early years. Of equal importance to the teaching of facts in various disciplines is the teaching of scientific conventions so that future generations are better able to recognise dodgy lists for what they are, know the difference between a climatologist and an engineer, and recognise that computer analysts aren’t well credentialed enough to compile lists of “peer reviewed papers” that actually do what they purport.

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