8-fold underestimate in flowering time predictions

Climate scientists have estimated that since 1900, our global average temperature has increased by 0.8 degrees C with most of the warming occurring since 1979 with a 0.2 degrees C/decade increase since 1979. A recent paper published online at Nature by Wolkevitch et al  draws on evidence from plant life cycle studies and experiments performed on 1634 species from four continents. It found that some experiments had underestimated the speed of flowering by 8.5 times and growing leaves by 4 times.

“Across all species, the experiments under-predicted the magnitude of the advance – for both leafing and flowering – that results from temperature increases,” the study said, “Predicting species’ response to climate change is a major challenge in ecology.”

What this study demonstrates is, that because of other factors not considered or under-considered in warming experiments, they fail to accommodate things like a drier soil or other multidimensional drivers. In a nutshell, its worse than we’ve been told.

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